Tuesday, January 5, 2021 brings a special election day to the Peach State. We are mapping it live right as polls close. Two different US Senate seats are in the contest. This typically never happens within one of our states because of the Senate’s class system, wherein all sitting Senators comprise three different election classes within the body. However, while David Perdue (R) stands for re-election to a six-year term, Kelly Loeffler (R) currently holds her seat as a vacancy appointment made by Georgia Governor Brian Kemp (R) upon the retirement of Johnny Isakson. This election is for what is known as an “unexpired term” which will run through January, 2023.
Both of these contests were originally held on November 3, 2020–at the same time as all the other Federal elections from President on down. And while the Presidential contest delivered clear results in Georgia, despite how many extra times it has been counted, both of these Senate contests triggered Georgia’s runoff rules due to the eye-watering margins they presented. So here we are.
4,952,175 people voted in the Perdue-Ossoff contest whereas 4,914,361 people voted in the Loeffler contest. It is hard to explain why 37,814 fewer voters would have an opinion about their other US Senator but the relatively muted shading of the second map shows Reverend Warnock also managed to be more competitive in some suburban areas of the state, although this might come down to the Republicans’ split lane, with both Loeffler and Collins on the ballot.
In the past we have measured “unhappy voters” being the share of partisan voters in an area who likely voted for a candidate who did not go on to win the Primary. In this case, we can treat Loeffler besting Collins on 11-03-20 as a kind of primary. In Warnock picking off some of these suburbs, we can expect to find some unhappy Collins voters, and the question is whether Loeffler has reconnected with them or if the trend by which this race already under-voted is bad for Loeffler. Quite possibly, this will affect turnout for Loeffler as the party’s standard bearer. Possibly it also reflects successful organizing by Warnock. These and more possibilities are in the mix.
For live election coverage, our data updates automatically so click refresh on these maps, and share and enjoy!