We mapped the average age of voters who participated in the 11-03-20 General election, and bucketed those ages into cohorts, so that the map highlights the average voter age in each ED. While we typically use opacity to display continuous values, such as percentages, a linear color gradient is more appropriate for moving between categorical, segmented, or otherwise bucketed values. We tell our product its start color and its end color, and how many colors we need in total, and we set our “quantization stops” to match. For this example, we have designed 5 “average age cohorts”. 18-29, 30-41, 42-53, 54-65, and 66 and up.
In nearly 88% of all precincts, the average voter age on 11-03-20 was 42-53 which gets an appropriately subdued hue, automatically. The capital for youth organizing is rendered clearly visible:
Also highly illuminated are enclaves where seniors voting is more prevalent. These are far, far more common.
By automating our data, quantizations, and maps, we can pull together comparisons. Here is the age map repeated for the 06-23-20 Primary election. That lets us compare these contests right alongside each other. The General map is on the left and the Primary map is on the right. What we see here is pretty interesting.
The Primary map is far more lush and colorful because the average age of voters was more likely to skew either a little younger or a lot older than in the General where everyone apparently pulled together and averaged out as truly middle-aged.
Keeping in mind that primaries are lower turnout affairs in New York and turnout is poor across the board, the magnitudes tend to suggest something about the political targeting that campaigns tend to employ. This targeting–based on the concept of “Prime” voters tends to be very senior-heavy and here’s why:
Seniors are more likely to have longer fixed-addresses, and to have been contacted in the past. This improves the likelihood of their political participation which in turn increases the chance they fall within a Voter Universe selection that is designed for and purchased by a campaign.
Otherwise, you can see improved performance–relative to the local mean that day–by youth organizers in Greenpoint, Williamsburg, Clinton Hill, Bushwick, Ridgewood, and Astoria.
